Author's Blog

November 19, 2008

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Last Call for Baseball?

The California League seems to brim with rumors.  Every year, some team is about to move, is destined to be dissolved, or is bound for another league.  This year is no different with the rumor mill floating around the Bakersfield Blaze and High Dessert Mavericks.  This year, however, the rumors are being taken more seriously and for good reason.  Not only would the moves make sense to many, and solve a few problems that keep popping up every couple of years, but the California League seems to be onboard while the cities themselves do not seem that desperate to keep the teams in town.  Yet, as always, a number of factors remain that make such moves less than likely.

First the Background

Baseball America reported on August 1 that talks were underway between California League owners to move the Bakersfield Blaze and the High Desert Mavericks to the Carolina League.  The article further went on to say that Richmond was the likely destination of the High Desert Mavericks.  Richmond has become available as a minor league market with the move next year of Atlanta Braves Triple-A affiliate, the current Richmond Braves, to Gwinnett County in suburban Atlanta.  Fayetteville, North Carolina is considered the likely front runner for the Blaze.

The report kicked off a flurry of media activity amongst newspapers across the state, especially in Cal League markets.  The California League, and most of the owners are not saying much, which has led to speculation on both sides of the coin.   Most have taken a wait and see tone, but reports in the Bakersfield Californian and Visalia Times-Delta seem to suggest a move is likely, while an article in the Modesto Bee suggested this was just the California League being the California League.

Rumors of this nature are nothing new to the California League.  For years the Stockton Ports were rumored to be on their way out until a new stadium and an affiliation with the geographically close Oakland Athletics put an end to that.  Visalia is another team that has had a history of moving companies placing the team on their hot prospects list.  A cool $11 million in promised renovations to Recreation Park by the City of Visalia finally put an end to that. Even the San Jose Giants, which hasn’t had the attendance problems of some of these other teams and is geographically close to its parent club, is said to have player facilities below professional standards causing the San Francisco Giants to express some dissatisfaction with Municipal Stadium.

Why the Move Makes Sense

San Lynn Ballpark.  To anyone that has been there, that name alone should be enough to understand why the Blaze could be skipping town.  While baseball freaks like me like the place for its unique, close to the players feel, there is no doubt that this is the poorest, most outdated park in the California League.  Warped plywood in the outfield fence, a field that by end of summer is more dirt than grass…this place is in bad shape, and no doubt attendance is low because of it.  Then there’s the sun that shines directly in from center field, which means games start later to preserve the eyes and batting averages of the players.  No doubt the Texas Rangers are disgusted with the place and one has to wonder if they hold off sending some of their prize prospects there, which could explain the perennial losing seasons the team experiences.  The bad performances further affects attendance.  The Blaze had the lowest turnout in the league in 2007.  Don’t expect any thing to change about Sam Lynn anytime soon.  City officials have been good at promising changes to the place, but when it comes to professional teams in this town, promises are about all they are good at.

Adelanto requires a little bit more head scratching.  Apparently the Seattle Mariners, and the Mavericks, are not happy with the current state of the stadium.  I’ve seen a lot worse.  What is very noticeable to anyone attending the games, however, is that Mavericks Stadium has gone from being one of the cleanest in the Cal League, to one of the dirtiest over the last couple of years, at least in upkeep anyway.  A few problems with the field (including a flood from broken sprinklers earlier this year) add to the problems.  The real kicker is the city itself, which has promised to raise the rent after the 2010 season when the current lease runs out.  The team has the option to renew, and according to the San Bernardo County Sun, has requested $3.5 million in upgrades to keep the team there beyond the 2010 season.  For its part, the City of Adelanto estimates it loses $125,000 to $150,000 on the stadium according to the Sun, and wants to sell the stadium to a private investor.

What might make Adelanto a candidate to move this year, along with the Blaze, is that two teams, not one, would need to leave the California League; and two teams would need to be added to the Carolina League if it expands.  No other team is really a candidate to change ZIP codes anytime soon.

The real reason this makes sense, however, is geography.  Teams are increasingly looking to keep their minor league affiliates close to each other and close to the parent organization.  The New York Yankees, for example, have all six of their minor league affiliates on the East Coast with the furthest teams still within a couple hours plane ride of the Yankees.  The key benefit is the time and cost needed to move players and scouts around.

While West Coast teams do not have the luxury of having all of their teams in one time zone with no Double-A or Low Single-A league west of the Rocky Mountains, East Coast teams do.  With eight Major League teams west of Colorado (including Colorado), but 10 of the 30 Single-A Advanced teams in California, two teams from either the middle or eastern sections of the country need to place players in the California League.  Texas, which plays in the AL West and is located halfway between the East Coast and the West Coast, would probably prefer to have its batters facing potential AL West pitchers, but geographically, the team does not have much to lose or gain if its Single-A Advanced affiliate plays on the East Coast or West Coast.  That leaves one team out, and over the last two years, the team has been Boston.  The Red Sox are not happy with their affiliation with Lancaster, and even went so far as to purchase the Salem Avalanche of the Carolina League to assure it’s affiliation could move their after the 2008 season.  Moving two Single-A Advanced teams to the East Coast would solve the problem of the bi-annual merry go round of teams looking for East Coast affiliations, assuming the Texas Rangers don’t mind the move.  With Salem’s Red Sox purchase, Houston will also be looking for affiliation after 2008.  The Mariner’s affiliation with the Mavericks also expires after the 2008 season, which means they could find affiliation with a California League team (Lancaster, the Mariners affiliate from 2001 to 2006, is looking).

Why the Move Doesn’t Make Sense

First, the 2009 schedule is already completed.  Not that it can’t be changed, but that will cost money.  That money, however, is the least of the monetary impediments.

According to Baseball America, in order to play in the Carolina League, each team would need to pay the Carolina League $1.5 million per league bylaws.  Meanwhile, the California League bylaws require teams transferring out of the league to pay “a small percentage of the team’s estimated value.”  Low end values for minor league teams is above $5 million, but a Single-A Advanced team would probably be valued at more.  So “a small percentage” would probably bring the overall cost for a team to move somewhere in the neighborhood of $2 million, and that doesn’t include actual moving expense, marketing cost, sign changes, etc.   The Mavericks will probably spend more than the $3.5 million in requested renovations to Mavericks Stadium just to skip town.

Then there is the question of Fayetteville.  The Baseball America article didn’t take into account that a team already plays in J.P. Riddle Stadium, the Fayetteville SwampDogs of the collegiate summer Coastal Plain League.  While Fayetteville would probably rather have a Single-A Advanced team than a college summer league team, the CPL is in no position to give up one of its more popular teams according to the Fayetteville Observer.  Nor are the SwampDogs ready to step aside.  Team options puts the lease through 2013.  J.P. Riddle is also below current standards for professional minor league teams according to the Observer, which means Bakersfield would be swapping one sub par stadium for another.

Why Now

So with the High Desert Mavericks lease in place through 2010, the Blaze in a year to year lease at Sam Lynn, and no immediate obvious location for one of the two teams in the Carolina League, the question has to be asked why now?  Apparently this is not the first time Minor League officials have looked at retraction in the California League.  California League president Joe Gagliardi has acknowledged in the past that 2001 conversations focused on reducing the California League to eight teams, while increasing the size of the Carolina League to ten teams.

What makes a move attractive now, however, is the timing of affiliation agreements.  Most MLB teams sign two to four year player development agreements with their minor league teams, which means every four years, there is usually a flurry of affiliate changes as teams parent organizations, unhappy with their current affiliation, look to make a change.  As the timing put it, a number of teams have affiliation contracts up after the 2008 season in the California League.  High Desert, Lancaster, Inland Empire, Lake Elsinore, San Jose, and Visalia are all looking to renew or negotiate a new player development agreement with a parent organization.  Lake Elsinore and San Jose aren’t likely to change, but Lancaster already knows they need to find a new parent.

So if moves by Bakersfield and High Desert seem like last minute moves, they are.  Yet, with a number of changes ready to be made in affiliations, the timing may have opened a window that some in Minor League Baseball feel needs to be addressed now rather than waiting.  If the teams don’t move, an Eastern or Central Time Zone team will be stuck forming an affiliation with a Pacific Time Zone team.  Maybe Houston?

Also facilitating any divorce between a California League team and its home city is the Golden Baseball League.  While the Blaze and Mavericks are talking about moving out, the GBL is talking about moving in.  The Bakersfield Californian has already reported that the GBL is “ready” to expand into Bakersfield should the Blaze leave.  Meanwhile, the San Bernardino County Sun reported that the GBL has already contacted Adelanto city manager Jim Hart.  Ironically, the GBL hurts these cities chances of keeping their current team.  With the thought of a new team taking the field, both have a renewed sense of negotiating power.  As Hart put it to the Sun, “(The GBL) don’t have a problem with the stadium.”  The thought of a GBL team moving in makes city leader less desperate to keep the existing teams.  Leases on the stadiums will be in place, voters who are baseball fans can be somewhat pacified by a new, more co-operative team moving in, and businesses that benefit from baseball will still have baseball.  Hence, the Mavericks and the Blaze are much more unlikely to get the improved facilities they need.  If these teams really are interested in leaving, then the perceived bargaining power of the cities may be just the key to open the door.   

What to Expect

While the moves have been reported as “likely to happen” by several individuals and media outlets, don’t hold your breadth.  Too many variables exist to expect a change in status quo.  Since the news first broke, the media and the leagues aren’t saying much, although the Olympics have taken up much of the sports world attention.  The few broadcasters and public relations folks I’ve talked to aren’t really sure either.  The real reason to expect status quo, however, is that for as much as the end of 2008 season makes sense for a move, 2010 makes even more sense.  Assuming the Mavericks sign only a two year affiliation this year, both the Mavs and the Blaze could be shopping for new affiliation after 2010.  The Mavericks lease will be up in Adelanto.  Schedules for the 2011 season have not been set, and the Carolina League would have enough time to find a suitable location, or encourage someone to build a suitable location for one of the two teams.

Even if the teams move, baseball still could be played at either Adelanto or Bakersfield, or both if the GBL decides to move in.  If presented with the opportunity, the GBL should wait a year or two (more on that next week).  Yet given the relative unlikelihood of the teams’ move after this season, and the fact that a new league may be ready to move in should they move out, one way or the other baseball likely to be played in Bakersfield and Adelanto in 2009.  My guess is that it will be Cal League ball.

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