Author's Blog

 July 31, 2010

2009 California League Preview


Friday, April 10, 2009

Last season, I called it.  My picks to win the California League South and North divisions were Lancaster and Stockton, respectively, and these were the two teams that faced each other in the California League Championship Series.  Not that I am congratulating myself.  If I could have placed a bet in August as to who the California League champion would be, I would have picked San Jose.  The Giants followed up an amazing first half of the season with a solid second half, only to fall to Stockton in the playoffs.  Meanwhile Stockton, which was only one game out of the first half title, faltered during the second half, and only made the playoffs as easily as they did on the strength of their first half totals.  In the playoffs, however, the Ports got hot and emerged as California League champions.  In the south, Lancaster emerged from a division that saw only one other team end the season with a winning record (Lake Elsinore went 71-69 for the season).

Of course, the idea of trying to pick a winner in the minor leagues is a less than perfect science.  Teams have significantly different rosters from year to year, organizations move and promote players during the season, and MLB players come to town on rehab assignments.  Nevertheless, a few clues do exist that can help turn complete guesses into somewhat qualified guesses.  Like last season, I am picking winners, possible winners, and dark horses, so with six of the ten teams mentioned, I greatly increase my odds.  Unlike, last season, however, rather than pick winners for the entire season, I will take my guesses in half season.   Following are my picks for the first half of the California League season.

North

Predicted winner:  San Jose.  True San Jose has a new manager, and most of their success the last decade has come under Lenn Sakata and Steve Decker, but the Giants also seem to get a lot of support from their parent organization.  Perhaps San Jose’s proximity to San Francisco offers the Giants organization the opportunity to keep a closer eye on some of their top prospects; or perhaps it’s because San Francisco also has an interest in keeping local fans excited about their future players.  In fact, personnel at other California League teams have complained publically about the Giants’ tendency to keep players at this level who may have been promoted if within another organization (case in point this season – 2008 ace Tim Alderson).   The organization has also figured out that winning the first half of the season guarantees a first round bye in the playoffs, which increases the chance for a Cal League championship.  San Francisco has a special interest in keeping San Jose competive; a 25% stake in the team and efforts by the city to lure the Oakland Athletics has San Francisco keeping a close interest in the team.  The largest of the Bay Area cities, officials in San Francisco want to keep San Jose Giants country.

Also watch:  Stockton.  Eleven players from the Ports’ championship team roster are in town to the begin the season.   If Craig Italiano, who went 7-0 with a 1.16 ERA for Kane County before being promoted, can turn around a less than stellar performance in the California League (1-4, 9.90 ERA), the Ports could have a genuine star in the making.

Sleeper:  Modesto.  The Nuts beefed up their hitting, with promotions to a couple stars from the Midwest and Northwest Leagues now in Modesto.     Charles Blackmon, who hit .338 in short season Single A Tri-City could thrive in the California League, even if John Thurman Field is not the friendliest place for batters.

South

Predicted winner:  Inland Empire.  Like the 2008 season, the South doesn’t offer too much to get excited about, with the possible exception of Rancho Cucamonga (see below).  Inland Empire has perhaps the best class of returning players with 14 from the 2008 roster that came on strong at the end of the season.  This could give them a head start that carries them to a first half championship.

Also watch: Lancaster.  A new affiliation make this team relatively unknown, but the roster seems to be stacked with players that did well in other leagues.  Nine of Houston’s 2008 draft picks will be in town to start the season, including one of their top, catcher Jason Castro, considered by many to be the Astros top prospect.  He’ll also have plenty of fans when he heads north to play teams like San Jose, he was drafted out of nearby Stanford.  Castro will be sharing time behind the plate with 2008 Carolina League MVP Koby Clemens.

Sleeper: Rancho Cucamonga.  Soon to be under new owners, the Brett Brothers, an air of excitement seems to be surrounding the team.  They have a large number of highly rated prospects, but almost all are new to the Quakes and Advanced Single A ball.  If even half these prospects play to expectations, Rancho Cucamonga could very well emerge as first half champion. 


Reader Feedback


There are no comments yet for this article. Be the first to post!

Post a Comment

Feedback Rules:
  • Users may post more than one comment, but should not pose as multiple users. Multiple posts from the same IP address but with a different user name on each will be reviewed to determine whether abuse has occurred.
  • Posts with personal attacks or unsubstantiated allegations may be edited or deleted.
  • If you have not posted before, you will be required to verify your email address before your post is displayed.

I agree to the Posting Guidelines.

Having problems submitting a comment? Email us at


© 2006-2010 BAEB Publishing / Shabram, Inc.. All Rights Reserved.